There were 15 polls* published between the 2014 referendum and the 2015 UK general election. The average for Yes is 45%. There have been 16 polls published since the 2021 Scottish Parliament election. The average for Yes of the first 15 of these polls is 45%. Most people won't need the import of this explained … Continue reading Flatlined!
That the Union has always been a bad deal for Scotland is not in doubt. Even in those periods of history in which a case can be made for saying Scotland has benefited from being in this purposefully grossly asymmetric political union - such as the age of the British Empire - any claimed benefits … Continue reading Our own worst enemy?
When I was a child I spoke as a child I understood as a child I thought as a child; but when I became a man I put away childish things.I Cor. xiii. 11 When I was a child I believed as a child. When I was a child I could be deceived as a child is deceived. When I was a child I was wishful as a child is … Continue reading Keeping it real
The only reason the polls aren't higher is Nicola Sturgeon's failure to take advantage of these circumstances. It is a failure of strategic political thinking stupefying in its self-serving stupidity. A series of appalling misjudgements - such as committing to the Section 30 process and choosing to fight Brexit rather than the Union - has left the independence movement in disarray and Scotland's cause in a precarious state.
I have long suspected that many of those participating in the 21 polls (so far) indicating a lead for Yes are responding to unasked questions about Brexit and handling of the public health emergency. They are not answering a question about Scotland's constitutional status. Although even they might think they are.
What has changed about the "dynamic of the constitutional conversation"? Alyn Smith and others were claiming we'd "never been closer to independence" on the basis of polling support considerably lower than that indicated by recent research. By that reckoning we should have soared - or surged - past independence by now. I'm not sure where that would take us.
Here in the real world, if a British politician is shown polling results indicating that large numbers of people in Scotland think the UK is not democratic their first thought is to wonder why they are being shown this.
Of course it would be "unacceptable" for the British government to "block Scotland’s democratic right to choose"! But it would be more than that. It would be wrong! In every sense of the word, it would be wrong! Even to attempt to deny the fundamental democratic right of self-determination is wrong. It cannot be right. It cannot rightfully be done.
Imagine, if you will, a survey which asked respondents for their views on breathing. Imagine 68% of those respondents indicating that they either had no strong feelings on the matter or were actively opposed to the process of respiration. How would we makes sense of it? Apparently, two-thirds of the population want breathing stopped. If … Continue reading Down with breathing!
I don't often comment on polls. I find it a bit of a pointless exercise. Such comments as I see on independence referendum-related polling usually fall into two categories. There's the endlessly analytical poring over the minutiae of the data that looks like a hell of a lot of work only to be rendered irrelevant … Continue reading Looking behind the polls