The only reason the polls aren't higher is Nicola Sturgeon's failure to take advantage of these circumstances. It is a failure of strategic political thinking stupefying in its self-serving stupidity. A series of appalling misjudgements - such as committing to the Section 30 process and choosing to fight Brexit rather than the Union - has left the independence movement in disarray and Scotland's cause in a precarious state.
I have long suspected that many of those participating in the 21 polls (so far) indicating a lead for Yes are responding to unasked questions about Brexit and handling of the public health emergency. They are not answering a question about Scotland's constitutional status. Although even they might think they are.
What has changed about the "dynamic of the constitutional conversation"? Alyn Smith and others were claiming we'd "never been closer to independence" on the basis of polling support considerably lower than that indicated by recent research. By that reckoning we should have soared - or surged - past independence by now. I'm not sure where that would take us.
Here in the real world, if a British politician is shown polling results indicating that large numbers of people in Scotland think the UK is not democratic their first thought is to wonder why they are being shown this.
Of course it would be "unacceptable" for the British government to "block Scotland’s democratic right to choose"! But it would be more than that. It would be wrong! In every sense of the word, it would be wrong! Even to attempt to deny the fundamental democratic right of self-determination is wrong. It cannot be right. It cannot rightfully be done.
Imagine, if you will, a survey which asked respondents for their views on breathing. Imagine 68% of those respondents indicating that they either had no strong feelings on the matter or were actively opposed to the process of respiration. How would we makes sense of it? Apparently, two-thirds of the population want breathing stopped. If … Continue reading Down with breathing!
I don't often comment on polls. I find it a bit of a pointless exercise. Such comments as I see on independence referendum-related polling usually fall into two categories. There's the endlessly analytical poring over the minutiae of the data that looks like a hell of a lot of work only to be rendered irrelevant … Continue reading Looking behind the polls
Scotland's independence referendumReading the editorial in today's Guardian I was struck by two things. The shallowness of the analysis. And the bitterness of the comments that followed.The first of these is evident in the rather quaint notion that Ruth Davidson's speech the other day marked some sort of major shift in Tory thinking on devolution. … Continue reading Referendum debate: A mystery to the media?