How does a viral pandemic come about? They come about when the virus is transmitted from areas with a high rate of infection to areas with a low rate of infection. If 100% of a given population is infected and an adjacent population has 0 infections then it is effectively 100% certain that any contact between the former will result in transmission to the latter. If the rate of infection in the first population is less than 100% then the risk of transmission is reduced accordingly.
Unchecked, the tendency will be for the rate of infection to equalise over all connected populations. In the modern world, almost all populations are connected in myriad ways. That is how pandemics happen.
Unchecked, the virus will on average affect the same proportion of every population. If there is a low level of acquired immunity, the virus will sweep in in swirling waves through to entire population of the planet. The only exceptions being those pockets of the world’s population that are totally isolated.
Total isolation is the only totally effective way of preventing transmission. If an individual is 100% cut off from all contact with the rest of the planet’s population then they are 100% safe from infection. If the level of isolation is reduced then the risk of infection increases accordingly.
What is true for individuals is also true for communities and larger populations. It is a grave error to think in terms of safe levels or forms of contact. There is no safe level or form of contact. It is not a case of how much contact we can cope with. The question for those intent on preventing the spread of infection is how much isolation can we achieve.
There are two ways to achieve isolation – distance and a physical barrier. What constitutes a safe distance will depend on the virus (or other pathogen) and the way it is transmitted. An airborne virus will by definition require greater separation than a virus which can only be transmitted by contact. Contact being defined as proximity at or less than the distance that the virus can travel from the infected host. Actual physical contact need not be necessary.
Physical barriers such as face masks provide a certain amount of isolation. If both the infected individual and the potential host are wearing good quality face masks then there is a very high level of effective isolation. If they also maintain the recommended separation then the isolation approaches 100%.
Nothing else works! Isolation is the ONLY way to prevent transmission.
Open borders MUST reduce isolation. Every lessening of isolation MUST increase rates of transmission from population with high level to areas which by stricter adherence to isolation measures have managed to achieve or maintain low levels of infection. Open border are like face masks with big holes. And make as little sense.
All of the foregoing is factual. It may be a simplification, but all of it is backed by hard science. It is also supported by experience. We know how viruses function in populations because their activity is being closely monitored all the time. We can all see what viruses do. We can see how they behave. Even Willie Rennie could see this is it were not for the huge British Nationalist blinkers.
Idiots like Willie Rennie are dangerous. They are dangerous because they put ideology before scientific evident and observable reality. Maintaining the myths and pretences and lies of their British Nationalist ideology is more important to them than preventing the spread of a potentially deadly virus. Preserving the Union is more important to them than preserving life.
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