Anybody who imagines the outcome of Brexit will ever be clear is living in a world of woefully naive fantasy. That outcome is as clear now as at ever will be. It is certainly clear enough for the purposes of Scotland’s cause. It became clear enough for the cause of restoring Scotland’s rightful constitutional status the moment our 62% Remain vote was contemptuously dismissed by the British political elite. And further clarified when our democratically elected representatives were excluded from was laughably called the Brexit negotiations.
The outcome of Brexit is that the UK’s relationship with the EU, and the rest of the world, will be in chaotic flux for decades. And we will know no more of the true situation at any given time than the British state wants us to know. There will be no clarity. And if you are ever given to understand that there is clarity, beware! You are being lied to!
Those of us who do grown-up politics long ago realised that what matters about Brexit – as with so many things – is, not the reality, but the perception. And who controls the tools by which perception is manipulated? The British state!
Regardless of what happens, Brexit will be portrayed as a success. Even as the Civil Contingencies Act is invoked and the devolved administrations are ‘suspended’ and people are rioting in the streets, we will be told that extraordinary measures are necessary to defend the success of Brexit against the efforts of a few ‘malcontents’ to undermine it.
Untold millions of pounds will be thrown at particular problems, not in the hope of solving them, but to make them appear less like problems. The beneficiaries of this state beneficence will not, of course, be the people most affected by thing like shortages of medicines, but the corporations hired to impose strict rationing and weed out those who are deemed to be causing the shortages by demanding medicines that they don’t really need – according to that stern-looking lady in what looks like a supermarket checkout operator’s tabard.
But let’s suppose for a moment that there was the possibility of a Brexit outcome that is clear. Let’s imagine the idea of clarity about the Brexit outcome is more than just an infantile notion and a desperate rationalisation of inaction. What is the outcome that obviates the need to dissolve the Union? What Brexit outcome changes the independence cause in any way?
Why wait for clarity that you’re never going to get about an outcome that is of no significance?
If, as some claim, Nicola Sturgeon is waiting until the Brexit outcome is clear, then she is a fool. And I am absolutely certain that Nicola Sturgeon is no fool. She is certainly not stupid enough to make a new referendum entire contingent on something that she is trying to prevent. Whatever the explanation is for the lack of action to resolve the constitutional situation, waiting for Brexit surely can’t be any part of it. It remains a mystery.
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